ACH, also known as Analysis of Competing Hypotheses is built as a simple and accessible model for how to think about a complex problem.
ACH takes you through a process for making a well-reasoned, analytical judgment. It is particularly useful for issues that require careful weighing of alternative explanations of what has happened, is happening, or is likely to happen in the future.
The software helps you overcome, or at least minimize, some of the cognitive limitations that make prescient intelligence analysis so difficult. ACH is grounded in basic insights from cognitive psychology, decision analysis, and the scientific method. It helps analysts protect themselves from avoidable error and improve their chances of making right calls.
This software provides a structured process for breaking a complex analytical problem down into its component parts - a full set of hypotheses (i.e., alternative explanations or outcomes), evidence and arguments that are useful in assessing these hypotheses, and judgments about the consistency or inconsistency of each item of evidence with each hypothesis.
The program steps you through a process that helps you question your assumptions and gain a better understanding of the issue.
The value of ACH is measured by the extent to which it helps you see an issue from alternative perspectives, prods you to look for additional evidence you had not realized was relevant, helps you identify and question assumptions, and generally stimulates new ideas about the issue at hand.
The hypotheses, evidence, and analysis of the evidence are entered into a matrix that becomes a record of your thought process in analyzing this problem.
This external record of your thought process is what helps you deal with the complexity inherent in most analytical problems. ACH also allows you to sort and compare evidence in various analytically-useful ways.
Find us on Google+
